All Roads Lead To a Great Recession

All Roads Lead To a Great Recession

Despite encouraging headlines about China loosening its covid policies, US stocks fell sharply from earlier highs after bleak consumer confidence data poured cold water on the month-end relief rally. That is in the range it was printing in during the 2015/16 downturn. It’s a difficult market to navigate these days:… Continue reading

Central Banks Are Being Caught off Guard by an Economic Tsunami

Central Banks Are Being Caught off Guard by an Economic Tsunami

The roaring economic recoveries that followed the pandemic’s first year slowed due to supply-chain issues. The world machine is far too large and complex to restart operations in a matter of months. Slowing growth was also an unexpected occurrence. To top it all off, Russia decided to invade Ukraine, while… Continue reading

Canada: Broad-Based Price Pressures Make a 75bp Increase Almost Inevitable

Canada: Broad-Based Price Pressures Make a 75bp Increase Almost Inevitable

In Canada, inflation reached levels not seen since 1983 in May. We believe that the CPI data make a 75 basis point interest rate hike at the next meeting a near inevitability, with rates peaking at more than 2.75 percent. There was no relief in May for those of us… Continue reading

As the Fed Raises Interest Rates, Financial Markets Will Remain Volatile Throughout the Summer

As the Fed Raises Interest Rates, Financial Markets Will Remain Volatile Throughout the Summer

Financial markets have taken a significant hit in the last week as a result of high inflation figures and an expected interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, raising fears of a recession. On Monday, June 13, U.S. stocks entered bear market territory, with the S&P 500, Wall Street’s… Continue reading

Here’s What the Fed Is Expected to Announce, Including the Biggest Rate Raise in 28 Years

Here’s what the Fed is expected to announce, including the biggest rate raise in 28 years

The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point on Wednesday, something it hasn’t done in 28 years. In reaction to rising inflation and unpredictable financial markets, the central bank will hike the rate that banks charge each other for overnight borrowing to a range… Continue reading

Bank of Canada Alerts High Household Debt and Elevated House Prices Pose Top Risks to Economic Situation

Bank of Canada alerts high household debt and elevated house prices pose top risks to economic situation

The Bank of Canada advised that household vulnerabilites have gotten worse over the past year and can lead to tension in the monetary system as borrowing costs soar and also very indebted debtors struggle to service their financial debts. In its most recent Financial System Review, the central bank stated… Continue reading

Global Growth Will Be Choked Amidst Inflation and War, World Bank Says

Global Growth Will Be Choked Amidst Inflation and War, World Bank Says

For large and small nations around the globe, the possibility of averting an economic downturn is fading. That grim diagnosis can be found in a report Tuesday from the World Bank, which alerted that the grinding war in Ukraine, supply chain chokeholds, Covid-related lockdowns in China, as well as dizzying… Continue reading